Autumn 2025 is bringing both opportunities and challenges for UK SMEs. In this edition of our Autumn 2025 Market Insights, we look at the lending landscape, rising debt pressures, and government schemes shaping the season. For business owners, autumn is the time to prepare for Q4 and make smart financial decisions that set the tone for 2026.
^ Majority allocated to short-term working capital.
Autumn 2025 Market Insights: Lending Growth Continues, But the Details Matter
UK banks have reported rising lending to SMEs in 2025, with £4.6 billion handed out in Q1 alone. That’s the strongest lending figure since before the pandemic. Encouraging, yes — but much of this lending is for short-term working capital, not longer-term investments.
That means businesses are still patching holes in cashflow rather than powering ahead with growth. For SMEs looking at the next 6–12 months, this could be a moment to pause and consider whether your finance mix is setting you up for expansion, or just firefighting.
If you’re also keeping an eye on wider trends, our UK SME Finance 2025 guide breaks down the key lending, support, and payment changes shaping the year.
Government Schemes Under Pressure
This autumn, government ministers are spotlighting access to finance, with the British Business Bank’s Growth Guarantee Scheme being one of the most talked-about initiatives. The promise? To get more lending to the small businesses that need it most.
The question is whether these schemes can actually deliver on the ground. For many SME owners, what matters isn’t announcements in Westminster — it’s what funding you can actually unlock when you walk into a bank or lender.
Rising Debt Meets the Q4 Pressure Cooker
Here’s the tougher news: SME debt levels are rising. Debt-to-turnover ratios have more than doubled compared with pre-COVID, and repayments are putting real pressure on cashflow.
With Q4 around the corner, this creates a perfect storm: seasonal trading spikes, higher staff costs, and repayment schedules all colliding at once. Businesses that leave funding decisions until December may find options limited, or approvals slower than expected.
If rising debt is squeezing your cashflow, our Eligibility Checker can help you see what support might be available before the year-end.”
What to Watch Heading Into Winter
Looking ahead, a few themes could shape the end of the year:
Interest rates: Any changes will directly affect borrowing costs.
Lender caution: If defaults rise, approvals could become tougher.
Staffing costs: Seasonal hires are adding to overheads.
Efficiency tools: More SMEs are exploring technology (even AI) to streamline operations and free up capacity.
The Bottom Line
Autumn is a turning point. Get your financial planning right now, and you’ll head into Q4 — and 2026 — on solid ground. Leave it too late, and you risk getting caught in a scramble for funding when lenders are at their busiest.
At Busby Finance, we help UK SMEs cut through the noise, find the right funding options, and take control of their growth plans.
👉 Ready to explore your options this autumn? Let’s talk on 01604 300701.
Get ahead of the Q4 rush: try our Eligibility Checker today and explore funding options tailored to your business.
For a deeper dive into lending growth and new government support, head over to our UK SME Finance 2025 blog.
